Issues that greatly affect US policy towards Ukraine

According to the Kiev Post (Ukraine) on October 15, with the 2024 US presidential election only about 3 weeks away, all eyes are on the race to the White House. Many people are interested in whether the new leader can change US domestic and foreign policies. Especially in the context of Ukraine facing a conflict with Russia, issues related to US policy towards Ukraine have become extremely important.

In a recent editorial, Pavlo Klimkin, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister, outlined the challenges that Ukraine will face under the next US president. He stressed that the road ahead for Kiev will not be easy, regardless of who enters the White House in January 2025 after the election. Mr. Klimkin pointed out five key issues that will strongly influence US-Ukraine relations in the coming time.

First, support for Ukraine cuts across party lines. Klimkin argues that American public support for Ukraine has waned as the conflict has dragged on. While American voters were overwhelmingly supportive of Ukraine at the start of the conflict, some politicians, particularly Republicans, have begun to question whether sending billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine is still feasible. This poses a major challenge for Ukraine in maintaining U.S. support, where internal problems such as inflation and border security dominate.

“While we must stand firm on Ukraine’s position in the dialogue with the United States, we also need to listen to our American partners and understand that they are pursuing their own priorities and pressing issues, not ours. That will not change after the elections,” Klimkin noted.

Second, the outcome of the US congressional elections will play a huge role. Not only the presidential election, but also the US congressional elections will have a major impact on US-Ukrainian relations. With one-third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives up for re-election, the outcome of these elections will influence budgets and strategic decisions regarding military assistance to Ukraine. Mr. Klimkin stressed that Ukraine needs to ensure that cooperation with the future president and the US administration is not perceived as “political bias.”

"After the elections, Kiev will face the challenging task of ensuring that its focus on cooperation with the future president and his administration is not perceived as political bias by the other party," the former Ukrainian foreign minister said.

Third, America is shifting its focus away from Europe. It is an undeniable fact that America is now more concerned with domestic issues such as inflation and immigration than with conflicts abroad. Mr. Klimkin said that no matter which candidate wins, fewer Americans will care about European issues.

Fourth, Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris have unclear strategies for helping Ukraine. Current presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have taken different positions on the war in Ukraine. Former President Trump has said he could end the conflict before returning to the White House, while Ms. Harris has expressed support for Ukraine but has dodged specific questions.

Fifth, neither candidate understands Russia’s war in Ukraine. Despite their long history with Ukraine, neither President Biden nor former President Trump seems to have a clear grasp of how the war is unfolding. Mr. Klimkin stressed that the Biden administration has misjudged Kiev in several key situations.

In short, the US presidential election in November will have a major impact on US policy towards Ukraine. While the US is facing many domestic problems, Kiev needs to work harder to secure support from Washington.