Abundant supply, car prices continue to fall deeply in the coming time

The latest report from the General Statistics Office shows that in March 2025, the Vietnamese market added a total of about 58,075 new cars, including domestically produced cars and completely imported cars. This number increased by 17.2% compared to February 2025 (49,571 cars) and increased sharply by 60% compared to the same period last year.

Of which, the output of domestically produced and assembled vehicles reached about 36,700 units, up 15% compared to the previous month. In the first three months of 2025, domestic enterprises produced a total of 106,400 vehicles - a growth rate of up to 81.5% compared to the same period in 2024.

Imported cars in March also recorded a high increase. Specifically, an estimated 21,375 cars were imported into Vietnam in March, with an estimated value of 445 million USD, up 21% over the previous month. Accumulating in the first quarter of 2025, an estimated 46,207 cars were imported into Vietnam with an estimated value of 983 million USD, up 43.5% in volume and 45.9% in value over the same period in 2024.

Thus, the total number of domestically produced and imported cars in the first quarter of 2025 is estimated to reach about 102,600 vehicles. The increase in the number of domestically produced and imported cars in March was predicted because this is the "acceleration" period after the Lunar New Year for manufacturers. In addition, from the end of the first quarter onwards, many car manufacturers plan to launch new products, so a large enough quantity of goods is needed to launch on the market.

Meanwhile, demand for cars remains low. Data from VAMA, TC Motor and VinFast show that by the end of February 2025, the total number of cars sold was only about 65,000 units - less than half of the number of cars put on the market in the same period.

The oversupply situation has persisted since last year. Figures from the General Statistics Office show that in 2024, the total supply of vehicles will reach about 620,740 units, while the total number of vehicles consumed for the whole year will be only about 510,000 units. Thus, the market has a surplus of more than 110,000 vehicles, and this gap will continue to widen in the first months of 2025.

Therefore, some auto experts believe that this is creating great pressure for manufacturers and dealers to apply large discount programs to push inventory. Discounts are considered a necessary move to stimulate consumer demand, help dealers "clear inventory", and avoid affecting production plans and introducing new products.

In April 2025, the market recorded a wave of car price reductions spreading across most segments and brands.

Toyota continues to be the leader in supporting 50% of registration fees for a series of models such as Vios, Veloz Cross, Avanza Premio and Yaris Cross. Yaris Cross - the only imported model in the program - is reduced by 33-38 million VND, bringing the actual selling price down to 617 - 727 million VND. The Vios sedan is reduced by 23 to 27 million VND, the price after incentives is only about 435 - 518 million VND.

MPV lines such as Veloz Cross and Avanza Premio are also supported from 28 to 33 million VND, bringing the actual selling price to about 606-635 million VND and 530-568 million VND.

Unlike Toyota, Honda has cut most of its incentives in April, only maintaining a 50% registration fee support policy for the Civic G and RS models (VIN 2024). The actual selling price after incentives is 749.5 million VND and 855.5 million VND.

At dealerships, the 2024 CR-V SUV is still heavily discounted, up to 90 million VND for the limited edition blue version.

Subaru continues to hold the title of the brand with the deepest discounts on the market. The Forester model is reduced from 140 to 200 million VND, the actual selling price is only from 829 to 999 million VND. The Crosstrek line is also reduced by 69 million VND for both the gasoline and hybrid versions, bringing the prices down to 1.029 billion and 1.199 billion VND respectively.

In the Japanese car group, Nissan is implementing a program to support 100% of registration fees for the Almera sedan and Navara pickup. The discount for the Navara PRO-4X can be up to 96 million VND.

Meanwhile, Hyundai and Kia are also not out of the price reduction race. Hyundai offers up to 75 million VND in discounts for 2024 models. Kia offers discounts from 8 to 110 million VND for the Soluto, K5, Seltos and Sorento lines. Notably, the Sorento Plug-in Hybrid is currently the most discounted, at around 1.289 to 1.424 billion VND depending on the version.

New Chinese car manufacturers are also actively competing with big incentives. Geely Coolray has a 50% reduction in registration fees - equivalent to 27 - 38 million VND. Omoda C5 Luxury version has a preferential price of only 499 million VND - 40 million VND lower than the announced price.

Lynk & Co brand supports 50% of registration fee for the entire product range including Lynk & Co 06, 01, 05, 03+ and 09. The discount ranges from 36.5 to nearly 132 million VND depending on the model and locality.

With abundant supply, analysts believe that the downward trend in car prices in Vietnam will continue in the second quarter and possibly last until mid-year. Consumers will continue to have more attractive options, while companies are forced to find ways to pivot their business strategies if they do not want to face increasing inventory pressure.