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How can England beat Spain? That is not an easy question to answer based on recent evidence.
Gareth Southgate will be aware that even the best-laid plans can be rendered redundant if Lamine Yamal conjures up another moment of genius like the goal against France.
Despite low expectations ahead of the tournament, Luis de la Fuente's side are still the standout team at EURO 2024. Croatia, Italy, Germany and France have all been beaten by them on their way to the final.
The composition of Spain's squad this time is very different to the squad that eventually reached the European Championship final. Their 2012 winning team had a lot of A-list players. This time, their only star is Rodri. Their main man, Yamal, is actually a schoolboy.
What they do have, however, without the stars, is a level of club-like cohesion and the ability to hurt their opponents in different ways, which will be a huge test for England as they look to win their first ever European Championship.
On the surface, Spain's defensive record at the tournament looks impressive. They didn't concede a single goal in the group stage. Randal Kolo Muani's opener for France was only their third goal conceded in 570 minutes of play.
But deeper data shows they have been given away dangerous chances equivalent to 6.2 expected goals, compared to England’s 5.7, so they are perhaps a little lucky not to have conceded more.
It should be noted that a significant portion of that figure came from a win over Croatia in the group stage. Germany were also wasteful, scoring just one goal from 2.2 expected goals, with Kai Havertz, Niclas Fullkrug and Thomas Muller all missing good chances.
England's challenge is to be more accurate in their finishing and Southgate should be aware that the majority of Spain's challenges in the tournament have come down their left flank.
Marc Cucurella has been praised for his defensive performances in Germany but he is also asked to join the attack, which can leave him exposed. With left-back Nico Williams pushing forward, Cucurella can also be isolated at times on the other side of the pitch.
That could be good news for England with Bukayo Saka available on that flank. The Arsenal striker scored a superb equaliser against Switzerland and continued his impressive form against the Netherlands. Saka's pace and dribbling ability make him a potent attacking force.
Remarkably, Saka is not the only player who poses a threat down the right flank. Kyle Walker has occasionally pushed forward to great effect and Cole Palmer also contributed positively, setting up Ollie Watkins' winning goal against the Netherlands from the right.
In fact, apart from Harry Kane's header against Slovakia in the last 16, all of England's open-play goals at the tournament have come from the right flank, which is likely to be their best line of attack against Spain.
Spain’s high pressing style is one of their most potent weapons at the tournament. According to Opta, they are the team that forces opponents into making the most mistakes at EURO 2024. This helps them close down opponents and create many scoring opportunities.
Riccardo Calafiori's own goal in the group stage win over Italy was the result of Dani Carvajal's close approach causing the defender to fumble the ball close to goal. Dani Olmo's goal against Georgia came after Mikel Merino dispossessed him in a similar dangerous area.
England need to be ready for this aggressive pressing style. Their defenders need to be calm under pressure when trying to play out from the back. Their forward players need to ensure they provide safe passing options.
But if England can overcome Spain’s pressing, the rewards could be huge, with plenty of space to attack. Spain’s style of play also carries risks. Putting so many men high up the pitch and using a high defensive line leaves their defence vulnerable.
Ollie Watkins, with his ability to run in behind the opposition defence, could be England’s best option to exploit this weakness. The Aston Villa striker could come off the bench and exploit the gaps as the game opens up.
Yamal is Spain's irreplaceable star. The winger became the youngest player to score at the EURO and is aiming to win the tournament.
His stunning strike against France was his first of the tournament but he has taken the most shots and provided the most assists (3) for Spain. In total, Yamal has created 16 chances, the most at EURO 2024 and the best tally by a Spanish player at a major tournament since Xavi Hernandez at EURO 2012.
Spain, however, often attack more down the opposite flank, where Nico Williams is also a big threat. But part of the reason for this deviation is to create space for Yamal. As France found in the semi-finals, Yamal only needs a few spaces to make a difference.
Spain are set up to ensure Yamal has the chance to receive the ball in space. Even when attacking down the left, the aim is often to switch the ball to the right. He will need to block Yamal's supply, not just from Williams but also from Carvajal and Rodri.
Using a three-man defence will give England the numerical advantage. Minimising the space available to Yamal will be the most important task for the Three Lions' stars in this match. France have failed to cope with this style of play from Spain, and England will need to silence Yamal if they are to win.
TB (according to Sports & Culture)