Vietnam faces risk of 'population collapse'

According to information released by the statistics agency on February 21, Vietnam's current fertility rate is only 1.91 children per woman, among the top 5 lowest countries in Southeast Asia. Compared to the regional average (2 children per woman), Vietnam is only higher than Brunei (1.8 children per woman), Malaysia (1.6 children per woman), Thailand and Singapore (1 child per woman).

In the past two years, the birth rate in Vietnam has decreased rapidly, from 1.96 children/woman in 2023 to 1.91 children/woman in 2024 - the lowest level in history. This is also the third consecutive year that Vietnam's birth rate has fallen below the replacement rate (2.1), according to the Ministry of Health.

Although 2024 is the Year of the Dragon, according to Eastern beliefs, it is a favorable year to give birth, but this result shows that the concept of giving birth has changed, no longer depending on the "good year" factor. At the same time, current birth promotion policies are not effective enough to prevent the decline in births, Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong commented.

In urban areas, the fertility rate in 2024 will only reach 1.67 children per woman, significantly lower than in rural areas (2.08 children per woman). Notably, the fertility rate in rural areas – which has always been higher than the replacement level – has begun to decline sharply in the past two years, falling below the replacement level.

According to experts, the low birth rate in Vietnam is influenced by many factors such as work pressure, financial difficulties, career development priorities and changing social perceptions. In rural areas, women often have more children due to early marriage, influenced by customs and practices, especially in remote areas. However, the trend of declining birth rates in rural areas is becoming increasingly evident.

Low fertility rates have a profound impact on population structure, reducing the working-age population, accelerating the aging process and negatively affecting population size.

Experts warn that without timely measures, Vietnam could face the risk of "population collapse", paralyzing the economy.

Faced with this situation, experts suggest that Vietnam needs to develop practical support policies such as reducing child-rearing costs, providing housing support, and changing social awareness.

According to Mr. Mai Xuan Phuong, a population expert, having children should be considered the responsibility, obligation and right of each individual, contributing to ensuring the sustainable development of the country.