Factors affecting the stock market after the September 2nd holiday

Along with that, the economy still maintains good growth, with growth expected at the end of the year; interest rates are stable on a low base. However, Vietnamese stocks still have uncertain, negative factors such as prolonged net selling pressure from foreign investors; geopolitical tensions in the world continue to escalate and expand.

Surpassing the highest price zone in 2023

According to a team of analysts from Saigon - Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS), VN-Index will end August 2024 at 1,283.87 points, up 2.59% compared to July, surpassing the highest price range in 2023. This is a quite positive development in line with domestic and international macroeconomic developments.

Commenting on the last trading week of August, experts from Kien Thiet Securities Joint Stock Company (CSI) said that, contrary to the unexpected and decisive developments in the first 3 weeks of the month, the market entered the last trading week of August with a cautious mentality, the trading pace also decreased and as a result, the market almost moved sideways around the 1,280 point mark.

The VN-Index experienced a week of sideways trading (a phenomenon where there is no clear trend in the market) in a narrow range from 1,274.7 to 1,290.45 points. Although there were 4/5 sessions with increased points, the "loss of breath" of demand gradually revealed with many "green on the outside, red on the inside" sessions.

The buyers' efforts to push up the price all failed early in the morning session, the 1,300-point resistance zone is still a big barrier that is difficult to overcome. Although it has not been able to overcome the barrier, the buying force still supports the price quite well, preventing the index from falling too deeply, but only slightly decreasing around the reference level.

Contributing greatly to the above achievements is the positive movement of large-cap stocks, the VN30 index increased by more than 10 points last week. In the remaining stocks, the "smoldering" selling pressure in the small and medium-cap groups hindered the market's progress. Closing the trading week of August 26-30, the VN-Index closed at 1,283.87 points, down 1.45 points, continuing to gain momentum waiting for a breakthrough day.

Market liquidity decreased by 17.6% compared to the average of 20 trading weeks, liquidity decreased especially sharply in the last sessions of August. Accumulated to the end of the trading week, the average matched liquidity on the HOSE floor reached 626 million shares (down 10.81%), down 11.88% in trading value.

Market opening had a poor week with 18/21 industry groups adjusting. Most sessions were in a state of "green on the outside, red on the inside".

Putting great pressure on the market last week were industries such as consumer goods (down 4.2%), textiles (down 2.26%), steel (down 2.03%), insurance (down 1.77%)...

On the other hand, residential real estate (up 2.31%), pharmaceuticals (up 0.75%), chemicals (up 0.42%).

Foreign investors net sold 824 billion VND last week, the selling intensity gradually decreased towards the end of the week and the positive signal returned when foreign investors net bought slightly in the last session of the week.

The focus of net selling last week was HPG (755 billion VND), VPB (299 billion VND), VRE (168 billion VND).

CSI believes that although the week ended with a decrease in points, negative signals have not appeared yet. VN-Index is still in the Sideway process to accumulate more momentum, aiming to surpass the psychological mark of 1,300 points in the near future.

“There were not many surprises last week, so our view remains the same with the expectation that the VN-Index will head towards the resistance level of 1,320 - 1,330 points,” CSI stated.

In the recently released August 2024 Stock Market Overview Report, Nhat Viet Securities Joint Stock Company (VFS) said that the VN-Index had a volatile month when it fell sharply at the beginning of the month, down to the nearest bottom of 1,180 points. It then bottomed out and increased in a V-shaped pattern to the 1,280 - 1,290 point range. Demand recovered when there was an explosive session at the 1,240 - 1,250 point range, but gradually weakened when it reached the old peak.

In the context of increasing selling pressure, VN-Index is likely to return to test the support role of the 1,250 - 1,260 point zone.

VFS offers two market scenarios. Scenario 1: Selling pressure weakens, positive information boosts the market after a long holiday. A bullish candle confirms the trend with large liquidity surpassing the resistance of 1,290 - 1,300 points.

Scenario 2: VN-Index adjusts to the nearest support zone of 1,250-1,260 points when the momentum from the demand side continues to be weak.

In fact, Vietnamese stock investors had a very cautious trading week, causing the index to move sideways and liquidity to be low. This is partly due to the "fear" of disbursing before the long holiday. Besides, investors are also waiting for important information like the world stock markets.

Waiting for important economic data

Stock markets edged lower on September 2 as investors awaited key economic data to be released.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (STOXX) fell 0.21% after hitting a record high on Friday (Aug. 30). Germany's DAX and Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

European stocks opened lower on weak economic data from China, with industrials and consumer spending leading the declines, said Aneeka Gupta, senior analyst at WisdomTree.

Survey data released on Saturday (August 31) showed China's manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August 2024 and figures released on Monday (September 2) showed eurozone factories also remained in trouble.

Markets were cautious earlier this month as it was a crucial month, with the Federal Reserve preparing to cut interest rates. Markets have rebounded strongly from a flash sell-off in early August but are now facing their weakest month of the year seasonally, said Ben Laidler, equity strategist at Bradesco BBI.

The big event of the week that investors will be looking forward to will be the US non-farm payrolls report released on Friday (September 6), which is expected to show that the economy added 165,000 jobs in August 2024, up from 114,000 jobs in July 2024. In addition, employment figures, weekly jobless claims and the Fed's beep book on the current economic situation are also very important factors this week.