The real purpose of the Russian army in promoting the military campaign in Kharkov

Russia is conducting a major offensive in the Kharkiv region. At the same time, the Russians are also attacking elsewhere, primarily in the Donbas and Zaporizhia regions. The threat in the north has forced Ukraine to withdraw troops deployed elsewhere, including Chasiv Yar, to try to hold the line in the Kharkiv region.

If Moscow intended to force the Ukrainian military to move north, it appears to have succeeded so far, according to the Asia Times. These troop movements will give the Russian military an opportunity to inflict further damage on the Ukrainian military.

The big question now concerns Russia’s primary objective. Military experts do not believe that Russia will deploy enough new troops (an additional 50,000) to actually take Kharkiv. Some believe that Moscow could send in additional forces to conquer Kharkiv, but at least so far that has not happened.

Some NATO officials believe Kharkiv is the target, but analyst Stephen Bryen, who serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near East Affairs, disagrees. He says that while the Russians are building a “cauldron” around the city, they would rather fight the Ukrainians on the outskirts than in a major metropolis. Kharkiv is Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Mr. Bryen assessed that Russia's goal was to force the Ukrainian army to lose its forces, causing heavy casualties on the Kiev side. And if everything went according to plan, the operation in Kharkov would split the Ukrainian army in two or completely separate it.

According to Mr. Bryen, Russia’s idea is not only to seize territory but also to destroy Ukraine’s ability to resist. There are many signs that Russia is achieving success in its ongoing campaign.

First, the commander of Ukraine’s northern defense forces, Brigadier General Yury Halushkin, was fired by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 15 for failing to properly organize the defense forces in the Kharkiv region. He was replaced by Major General Ihor Tantsyura. However, Halushkin’s dismissal did not change anything on the battlefield.

Second, Ukraine’s defenses are not effective enough. They are mainly digging deep trenches because there is little time to build cement bunkers. However, Russia is bringing in flamethrowers and artillery to destroy the trenches. Russian troops are reportedly entering the trenches and attacking them along with the Ukrainian defenses below.

The third point is that Ukraine’s armored forces have not been effective. One of the lessons of the war in Ukraine is that armored vehicles are no longer a front-line weapon when they can be destroyed by cheap drones, air-dropped mines, and anti-tank weapons. In the past few days, an Abrams tank and at least one Leopard tank have been destroyed on the Ukrainian side. Large-scale tank battles seem to be a thing of the past.

Fourth, according to Mr. Bryen, is the increasing number of Ukrainian soldiers who are being captured or surrendered. Most of them are experienced soldiers, not newly recruited conscripts, so surrendering has a big psychological impact. There are also reports of units refusing to carry out offensive missions or withdrawing without orders from their commanders. The numbers so far are not very high, but the Russians are trying to make it public.

The fifth point is that at least two colonels in the presidential guard have been arrested and the head of President Zelensky's security team has been removed from his position. Mr. Zelensky said they were planning to assassinate him and other senior officials, blaming the Russians.

But looking at the war, the Russians did not target President Zelensky, according to Bryen. Two weeks ago, Russia put Zelensky, intelligence chief Budanov, and others on its “wanted” list for unspecified crimes. But this Russian list is not a kill list.

The bottom line is that President Zelensky and his forces now know that the West will not send troops to save Ukraine, despite French President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial statement about the idea. Washington has said there will be no NATO troops in Ukraine. NATO said the same, and now even Macron says he doesn’t really mean it.