Hundreds of projects are being dismantled, revealing the time when real estate will recover

Solving difficulties for hundreds of projects

At the first Autumn Real Estate Forum on September 28 organized by the Vietnam Real Estate Association, the Vietnam Real Estate Research Institute and the Vietnam Real Estate Electronic Magazine (Reatimes), Mr. Hoang Hai, Director of the Department of Housing and Real Estate Market Management (Ministry of Construction) said that the Government's Working Group had received 130 documents reporting difficulties related to 180 projects nationwide.

In Hanoi, 419 projects have been resolved, equivalent to 58.8% of the initial 712 projects; 293 projects are being directed to be resolved.

The Ho Chi Minh City Department of Construction has resolved 67 projects. In Hai Phong, Da Nang, Can Tho, Dong Nai, Binh Thuan, it is also continuing to remove difficulties for projects.

Regarding the Project to build 1 million social housing apartments, Mr. Hai said that 41 projects have been completed with a scale of 9,416 apartments; 294 projects are continuing to be implemented.

Regarding the disbursement package of 120,000 billion VND, Mr. Hai said that the People's Committees of the provinces are considering announcing 40 projects with a total loan demand of 18,000 billion VND. Currently, the Departments of Construction have completed reviewing 24 projects with a demand of 12,000 billion VND, and the decision on whether to borrow or not will be further considered by the State Bank.

According to Mr. Hai, the Government has issued Resolution 33 to remove difficulties and develop a healthy and safe market. As a result, the Government has drafted the Land Law, Housing Law, and Real Estate Business Law for the National Assembly. The Government has issued Decree 08 on bond offerings and Decree 10 on pink books for condotels.

Along with that, the State Bank also issued a series of documents, reducing interest rates 4 times, from 1.5 - 2%. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment also issued Circular 02 related to land use right certification...

Real estate recovery time

With the participation of the Government and ministries, experts all believe that the real estate market is about to recover.

Assuming that the market is showing better changes at this time, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, cited that in the first quarter of 2023, supply decreased severely, almost stagnant, with only more than 1,000 transactions; in the second quarter, it increased to about 3,700 successful transactions. In the third quarter, in the first two months of the quarter, there were more than 5,000 successful transactions and 300 projects nationwide were launched for sale.

“We predict that the fourth quarter of 2023 will be the time for recovery to begin. Hopefully, there will be many positive signs as policies to remove difficulties are gradually having a positive impact on the real estate market,” Mr. Dinh expected.

Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV, member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, assessed that the real estate market has been recovering. Compared to the golden period, it has only recovered about 20-30%.

Mr. Luc commented that in the coming time, the real estate market will develop in a better scenario, the big push will start from the beginning of the first quarter of 2024. The reason is that interest rates have been decreasing. The penetration of policies at that time will also be better; especially when many laws are passed by the National Assembly in the coming October.

Dr. Nguyen Van Khoi, Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, expressed his opinion that the second and third quarters of 2024 will recover better than in 2018. In particular, according to him, the social housing and industrial real estate sectors still dominate.

“For new commercial housing projects, hopefully the upcoming completion of the law will make it easier for projects to develop,” Mr. Khoi hopes.

According to the Vietnam Real Estate Research Institute's report on the Vietnamese real estate market, the market is currently at the bottom of a "U" shape and is in a sideways cycle.

It is expected that the sideways and upward trending cycle will last until the end of 2023. In 2024, the market will begin to enter the recovery phase and officially recover in a "V" shape from the middle of the second quarter of 2024.