North Korea's moves: A test for US-North Korea relations

Images of North Korea's missile test launch are shown on television at an electronics store in Seoul, South Korea on March 25, 2021.

South Korean and Japanese sources said North Korea launched several objects believed to be missiles into the Sea of ​​Japan early on March 25.

According to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), North Korea launched two unidentified objects, while Japan said this was a ballistic missile launch, which is a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1718, which bans Pyongyang from nuclear and ballistic missile tests.

As of the evening of March 25, North Korea had not given any response to the information from South Korea and Japan.

Following the announcement, both South Korea and Japan convened National Security Council meetings and maintained close coordination with their US ally.

Meanwhile, Russia and China have called on all parties to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and resolve the issue through dialogue and consultation as this meets the interests of the international community.

Previously, analysts predicted that North Korea could conduct some activities to "show its attitude" after the US and South Korea ended their annual nine-day spring joint exercise called Combined Command Post Training (CCPT) on March 18.

For a long time, North Korea has always believed that the joint US-South Korea military exercises show hostility towards Pyongyang, and are "a general rehearsal for war."

In fact, during former US President Donald Trump's tenure, tensions on the Korean Peninsula were partly managed by a "dual suspension" strategy, in which North Korea stopped nuclear and long-range missile tests, while South Korea suspended joint military exercises.

Although this year's joint drills were scaled back due to the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korea warned that "war drills and hostility can never go together with dialogue and cooperation."

In addition, the US and its two allies South Korea and Japan have just conducted a "2+2" strategic dialogue, in which Washington made a strong commitment to protect its allies in Northeast Asia.

New US President Joe Biden advocates promoting ties with allies Japan and South Korea, including on the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula, unlike the previous administration.

In particular, the US side reaffirmed its commitment to defend its ally South Korea and strengthen deterrence “using the full range of US capabilities,” while calling on both sides to maintain readiness to respond to “all common threats” through joint exercises and training.

That is expected to worry North Korea, which sees the US-South Korea alliance, the US military presence in South Korea and the US “nuclear umbrella” that guarantees its allies Japan and South Korea as imminent threats to Pyongyang.

The US currently provides deterrence on the Korean Peninsula through the approximately 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea and this “nuclear umbrella” (both air and sea).

Meanwhile, the administration of US President Joe Biden has yet to come up with any specific policy on North Korea, although the US State Department has declared it an "urgent issue" and Washington will maintain its commitment to denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that in close consultation with allies, the US plans to review its entire approach to North Korea to find options that can be effective in increasing pressure to force Pyongyang back to the negotiating table as well as highly feasible diplomatic initiatives.

Analysts say that in the context of the US-North Korea dialogue being at a standstill since late 2019, this approach is unlikely to bring about a breakthrough.

On the North Korean side, leader Kim Jong-un affirmed: "The key to establishing new relations between North Korea and the US is that Washington must abandon its hostile policy towards Pyongyang."

North Korea's leader pledged to strengthen his nuclear deterrent, but did not completely close the door to dialogue with the United States. Pyongyang also repeatedly said it would treat the United States in a "reciprocal" manner.

Commenting on the news that North Korea launched an object that could be a ballistic missile, Harry Kazianis, director of the North Korea research program at the Center for the National Interest in Washington, DC, said this was a message to the new US administration.

Through these tests, Pyongyang is signaling to the Biden administration that North Korea's military capabilities and strength will only grow stronger, Kazianis said.

Previously, at the military parade celebrating the success of the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea on January 14, North Korea displayed many modern weapons, including ballistic missiles that can be launched from submarines and rockets with high attack capabilities.

Many people believe that this move seems to be a way to "test the reaction" of the new US administration when President Joe Biden takes office on January 20.

James Kim, a senior fellow at the Seoul-based ASAN Institute for Policy Studies, also said that "North Korea's message has reinforced recent statements by the Pyongyang government that the US must stop its provocative actions if it wants to receive a commitment (from Pyongyang)."

Regardless, the above new developments are threatening to escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Perhaps both the US and North Korea are facing a test of how to resolve the current impasse, when the COVID-19 pandemic has raged for more than a year with serious consequences.

In a message delivered before the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea, which was also before Joe Biden took office, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un mentioned his first summit with President Trump in Singapore in 2018, in which the two sides reached a "joint statement ensuring the formation of new US-DPRK relations."

Mr Kim Jong-un asserted that previous agreements reached with the Trump administration could serve as a basis for future negotiations.

Analysts say this could be a "suggestion" for the Biden administration to find the most pragmatic approach to achieving the goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. It could be a long-term, phased and "reciprocal" roadmap based on the principle of "action for action."

The implementation cycle is from agreement to implementation, from implementation to building trust and on the basis of trust to reach the next agreements. In particular, the agreement that the US and North Korean leaders reached in Singapore in 2018 on improving relations, resolving peace and denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula will serve as the starting point for a new round of negotiations.

According to VNA