Will negotiations over the future of US military bases in Syria be similar to those with Russia?

“Everyone is waiting for Trump to take office, and this issue needs time between the US administration and the new Syrian government,” Murhaf Abu Qasra said in an interview with the Washington Post. He added that the issue of whether the US will maintain a military presence in the northeast of the country is still under negotiation.

According to TASS news agency, the US-backed Kurdish forces currently control about 25% of Syria, including most of Raqqa and Al-Hasakah provinces, as well as the northeastern part of Deir ez-Zor province, which has many oil fields. Since 2015, the US has established at least nine military bases in areas controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

On February 5, NBC News cited two US officials as reporting that the Pentagon is drawing up plans to withdraw all US troops from Syria. According to the network, US President Donald Trump and his close aides have recently expressed their desire to withdraw US troops from Syria. The US leader himself told reporters at the White House that Washington should not interfere in Syria's affairs.

Previously, in late November 2024, the armed opposition forces in Syria launched a large-scale attack and successfully overthrew the government of President Assad - supported and backed by Russia.

The opposition has established an interim government headed by Mohammed al-Bashir and this interim transition period is expected to last until March 1, 2025. Recently, on January 29, Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, was chosen to serve as Syria's interim president during the transition period.

One of the leading military powers that is also negotiating to find a specific status for its bases in Syria is Russia. Nominally, Russia maintains two strategic military bases in Syria, including the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim air base. These are identified as important facilities that help Russia maintain its influence not only in Syria but also as a springboard for Moscow's activities in Africa and neighboring regions.

About a week ago, a delegation of Russian diplomats arrived in Damascus for a summit, with the important task of laying the foundation for Russia to maintain its military bases in Syria, after the collapse of the regime of former President Assad - Russia's ally.

The subsequent talks, the first between Moscow and Damascus since the end of the nearly 14-year civil war, ended without any results. But they were seen as the beginning of lengthy negotiations on Russia’s role in post-war Syria. A process that was seen as very difficult and disadvantageous for Russia, as the two sides still had many disagreements over the terms of the negotiations and Russia was seen as the weaker party.