Who is leading in the 2024 US presidential election race?

In three of those seven states — the so-called “Blue Wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the margin between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump is less than 1%.

Nearly 70 million Americans have already cast their ballots early, but inferring final results from early voting numbers is often unreliable.

American media commented that it is very difficult to predict the election results based only on early voting survey data, because there are errors and it depends on each party's voter mobilization policies.

Polls show the race is tight and Donald Trump appears to have a slight advantage.

The former US President is leading in many battleground states over his opponent Harris in the latest opinion polls.

In the DDHQ poll, Mr. Trump leads in 6 states. On other sites, he leads in 5 states.

The gap stems from Wisconsin, where three other sites show Ms Harris leading and the DDHQ poll shows Mr Trump leading.

In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2% over her opponent Donald Trump, but she still lost the election.

So Mr. Trump’s advantage is still not certain. Forecasts from DDHQ and FiveThirtyEight show that Mr. Trump has a 54% and 51% chance of winning, respectively.

There is now a clear divide between the “Sun Belt” and the “Blue Wall,” and the divide has deepened in recent weeks.

The DDHQ poll shows Mr Trump with his biggest advantage of any battleground in Arizona, where he leads by 2 percentage points.

Not far behind are Georgia, where he leads by 1.9%, and North Carolina, where he leads by 1.4%.

According to DDHQ's forecasting models, Mr. Trump has a 65% chance of winning Georgia, while he has no more than a 53% chance in any of the three "Blue Wall" states.

It’s important to take the electoral votes into account here. Marist polls in the battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania released on November 1 showed Harris leading her Republican opponent by 2 percentage points in each state, 50% to 48%.

A third poll of Wisconsin voters shows Ms Harris leading by 3 percentage points, 51-48%.

If Ms. Harris wins the three “Blue Wall” states, she will become the owner of the White House, even if Mr. Trump wins the other four battleground states - as long as the results in other states remain the same as the 2020 presidential election.

In that scenario, Ms Harris would win by the narrowest possible margin of 270 electoral votes to Mr Trump's 268 electoral votes.

The question that haunts every reputable polling organization is whether their models are biased. Polls are generally valid, but they can also be subject to systematic errors.

In every election, poll results differ to some extent from the final result. This is inevitable because pollsters can only estimate who will actually vote.

In addition, many people only make their decisions when they get to the ballot box. Some unexpected events can also arise at the last minute.