VPI forecasts gasoline prices to increase across the board during the April 11 management period

According to the Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI), in the operating period on April 11, retail gasoline prices are forecast to increase by 0.7-1.5% and the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade may continue to set aside the Gasoline Price Stabilization Fund for fuel oil.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the supervised learning algorithm in Machine Learning of VPI predicts that the retail gasoline price in the operating period on April 11 may increase by 262-369 VND, bringing the gasoline price to 24,172 VND/liter (E5 RON 92) and 25,169 VND/liter (RON 95-III).

VPI said that the forecast results for retail oil prices this period shared an upward trend, in which diesel prices increased by 1.1% to VND21,208/liter, kerosene prices increased by 0.7% to VND21,147/liter, and fuel oil prices increased by 1.3% to VND17,510/kg.

VPI's model predicts that this time, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade will likely continue to set aside the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund for fuel oil at 300 VND/kg.

Expert Doan Tien Quyet said that retail gasoline prices may increase higher near the adjustment period because the market is affected by escalating tensions in the Middle East. The adjustment period on April 11 is likely to repeat the scenario of the previous period when the price increase margin of E5 RON 92 gasoline is higher than RON 95 gasoline and the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade may decide to use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund when the retail price of RON 95 gasoline exceeds the threshold of VND25,000/liter.

In the world market, oil prices rose in the afternoon trading session on April 9, as hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza faded and concerns arose that the prolonged conflict would disrupt supplies from the Middle East. Brent crude futures rose 14 US cents to $90.52 a barrel in the early afternoon Vietnam time; US light sweet crude (WTI) rose 10 US cents to $86.53 a barrel.

Geopolitical risks are supporting oil prices, said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at investment brokerage OANDA, adding that India’s fuel demand is set to hit a record high in fiscal 2024 due to higher gasoline and jet fuel consumption.

This week, markets will be watching inflation data from the US and China for further signals on the economic direction of the world's two top oil consumers.