The shift in the US-China "equation"

By the second half of his term, that approach seemed to have changed as the US proactively pushed for negotiations with China since this summer. This has helped the US-China “equation” in the second half of the year shift in a more substantive and constructive direction after the seemingly intractable conflicts in the first half of the year.

Relations between the world’s two largest powers this year can be described as two opposing shades: tense and amicable. At the beginning of the year, bilateral relations became “tense as a bowstring” when a US fighter jet shot down a Chinese balloon passing through US airspace off the coast of South Carolina. China insisted that the balloon was used for scientific research and that its appearance in US airspace was unintentional.

The incident prompted Secretary of State Blinken to postpone his visit to China, effectively freezing the budding détente between the two powers.

The lack of strategic trust has caused both sides to almost stop dialogue and communication with each other - something that would have been essential to help the two countries control their disagreements.

Many conflicts between the US and China have occurred since then, from increasing military presence and challenging each other in strategic seas or areas where the two sides compete for influence, to disagreements on the Taiwan issue (China), the Russia-Ukraine conflict... All have pushed the US-China relationship to almost "rock bottom".

However, as Susan Shirk, an expert at the University of California San Diego, said: “Sometimes the US-China relationship has to reach a dangerous level before the two governments can invest more effort in improving the relationship.” This “investment” is demonstrated through a series of shuttle diplomacy activities that the US launched in the middle of the year.

With the aim of rebuilding communication and trust between the two countries, the US has sent at least four senior officials to Beijing and established economic and financial working groups with China.

Washington’s response to this “olive branch” was a visit to the United States by senior Chinese officials, notably Chinese Vice President Han Zheng and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. These positive diplomatic moves helped make possible a summit between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in November on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in San Francisco (USA).

Observers said the meeting provided an ideal setting for the US and China to rekindle the spirit of dialogue and cooperation that the two countries' leaders promoted during the summit in Bali, Indonesia, late last year.

The US-China summit provides an opportunity for the two countries to enhance mutual understanding and expand cooperation, while playing a positive role in stabilizing bilateral relations that have been spiraling downward.

The resumption of military contacts between the two countries to avoid “hot conflicts” caused by unexpected incidents or miscalculations is the most important step in the “protective fence” of relations. The two sides also agreed to resume cooperation in counter-narcotics, control and prevent the transport of fentanyl precursors into the US, increase the number of flights next year, and expand people-to-people exchanges in the fields of education, culture, sports, business, etc.

The outcome of the meeting showed that both Beijing and Washington are aware of the benefits and importance of managing differences to prevent bilateral relations from falling into a spiral of conflict.

Cooperation on climate change is also a bright spot in US-China relations in 2023. The world's two largest greenhouse gas emitters have agreed to establish a climate working group focusing on energy transition, reducing methane, promoting a circular economy, increasing resource efficiency, developing low-carbon cities, and combating deforestation.

Jake Werner, acting director of the East Asia program at the Quincy Institute, said clean energy and climate change are "one of the most constructive aspects of the US-China relationship."

Establishing a structure that reflects mutually recognized common interests is crucial to US interests because it will facilitate healthy competition and cooperation with China.

In reality, the US-China relationship has always had conflicts of interest. Protectionist measures or export controls are applied as the world's two largest economies increasingly compete for global supremacy, especially in the technology sector.

Citing “national security,” the United States continues to seek to contain China’s growing technological influence by restricting some US investments in sensitive high-tech sectors in China – which Beijing considers “anti-globalization.”

The US also reached agreements with the Netherlands and Japan to tighten controls on exports of high-tech chip manufacturing machinery to China.

Using similar arguments, China has banned domestic companies from buying chips from US manufacturer Micron Technology, while also strengthening export controls on two strategic raw materials for semiconductor production, gallium and germanium.

China is also moving to strengthen its domestic technology system with a national strategy based on open-source chip architecture.

Geopolitical competition also shows no signs of cooling down, as the controversy surrounding the US tightening its alliance with the Philippines and conducting joint military exercises off the coast of Manila has further “heated up” the files causing discord in US-China relations.

It is difficult to say that US-China relations are warming up again, because after all, the approaches of the two sides are still too different. For the US, China is the only country with enough economic, military, technological, and political capacity to challenge the US order and interests. Therefore, Washington determines that competition is inevitable but still needs to be managed and opportunities for cooperation sought.

This is reflected in the Biden administration’s three-point approach to relations with the rising Asian power: cooperation in areas of shared interests, competition if necessary, and confrontation if necessary to protect US interests. Meanwhile, China maintains three basic principles for US-China relations: mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation.

Ms. Liu Yuanling, assistant professor at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, commented that in the coming time, both sides need stability to gradually improve bilateral relations and rebuild trust.

Meanwhile, Mr. Ralph Cossa, Honorary President of the Pacific Forum at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, commented that the current US-China conflict is a matter of strategic competition between the world's number 1 power and the power that is rising to that position.

Therefore, to manage this relationship, we still need 4 Cs including "3 things to do and 1 thing to avoid". That is: "cooperation" when possible, "compete" when appropriate, "confront" when necessary and absolutely avoid direct "conflict".

As two leading powers, the US and China both recognize that it is necessary to coordinate the relationship responsibly because global challenges, from political and security issues to climate change and technological development, still require the two sides to cooperate together.

This will require more practical actions from both sides to put bilateral relations truly on the track of stability, dialogue and cooperation for the common interests of both countries and the whole world.