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Hamas knows that the longer it holds the hostages, the more likely it is that it will end the war with Israel on its terms.
Israel's dilemma
Yahoo News on March 6 quoted information from Western news agencies saying that in the past 5 months, Israel has killed thousands of Hamas gunmen, destroyed dozens of the group's tunnels and civilian infrastructure in the Gaza Strip.
But Israel still faces a dilemma that was predicted from the start of the war and that will ultimately determine the outcome of the war. Israel can seek to wipe out Hamas, which would almost certainly mean the deaths of the 100 or so hostages still in Gaza. Or Israel can agree to a deal that would see Hamas win a historic victory.
Both outcomes are difficult for Israelis to bear.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, denied that the country was in a dilemma. He has pledged to destroy Hamas and free all hostages, either through rescue missions or ceasefires, and has declared victory within weeks.
However, it seems that the time will come when Israel will have to choose between hostages and military victory.
Hamas' bloody gamble
Meanwhile, Hamas appears to be in no rush to reach a temporary ceasefire before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins next week. Nor is Hamas in any rush to delay Israel from carrying out its plan to attack the southern Gaza city of Rafah.
Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar has reason to believe that as long as the group holds the hostages, it can eventually end the war on its terms.
During more than two decades in Israeli prisons, Mr. Sinwar learned fluent Hebrew and studied Israeli society, and he identified Israel's weaknesses.
He knows that Israel cannot accept the detention of its people, especially its soldiers, and will do its utmost to bring them back. Sinwar himself was one of over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for a captured Israeli soldier in 2011.
For Mr. Sinwar, the Israeli attack on October 7, 2023, may have been a sideshow to the main operation of sending a large number of hostages into the vast maze of tunnels beneath Gaza, where Israel would not be able to rescue them and where the hostages would serve as human shields for Hamas leaders.
Once that is achieved, Mr. Sinwar has a powerful bargaining chip that could be used to exchange for a large number of Palestinian prisoners, including top Hamas leaders serving life sentences, and could end the Israeli offensive that Hamas had anticipated.
No weapon can overcome this Hamas strategy.
The tunnels stretch hundreds of miles, some of them several levels underground, protected by blast doors and booby traps. Even if Israel were to locate the Hamas leaders, any operation to eliminate them would almost certainly result in the hostages’ deaths.
The goals are contradictory, according to Amos Harel, a military correspondent for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. It is possible to say that defeating Hamas will take a year and that Israel is moving toward that goal, but the problem is that no one can guarantee that the hostages will survive. Even if Israel somehow eliminates Mr. Sinwar and other top Hamas leaders, others will rise up and replace them, as they have in the past.
Israel has successfully rescued three hostages since the start of the war, but all on the ground. Israeli soldiers have also accidentally killed three hostages, while Hamas says several hostages were killed in air strikes or failed rescue operations. About 100 hostages have been released in a ceasefire deal in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that military pressure would eventually help free the remaining 100 hostages and bring back the remains of 30 others held by Hamas.
But in January, Gadi Eisenkot, a member of Israel's War Cabinet, said it would be an illusion to demand the release of hostages without a ceasefire.
Hamas would never release its most valuable hostages just to get a temporary ceasefire, because then Israel would continue its efforts to destroy the group. Hamas has also rejected suggestions that its leaders surrender and go into exile.
For Mr. Sinwar, it was best to stay underground with the hostages and see if his gamble paid off.
End of script
The Israeli government is under increasing pressure from the hostages' families as well as from a public that sees the release of the hostages as a sacred duty.
There is a Hamas proposal for the hostages to return alive. The group calls for the phased release of all hostages in exchange for a gradual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, a ceasefire and long-term reconstruction. Israel would also release hundreds of prisoners, including top Palestinian political leaders and militants convicted of killing civilians.
Hamas will almost certainly remain in control of Gaza and may even hold victory parades. Over time, Hamas could recruit new fighters, rebuild tunnels and replenish its arsenal.
It would be an extremely costly victory, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed and much of Gaza destroyed.
But a rare wartime poll in 2023 showed 40% of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support Hamas.
Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at the international think tank Crisis Group, commented that support would only increase if Hamas succeeded in lifting the blockade of Gaza.
Mr Netanyahu dismissed Hamas's proposal as a fantasy, but there was no sign that the group would abandon those core demands.
Israel could continue fighting for weeks, months or years. Its troops could kill more Hamas fighters and destroy more tunnels, avoiding the areas where they believe the hostages are being held.
But at some point, Israeli officials may have to make one of the most difficult decisions in their history.
