Tensions escalate as Belarus holds military drills near Poland and Lithuania

Belarusian tanks during a military exercise in July 2022.

According to The Guardian (UK), the Belarusian Ministry of Defense said the exercise, which began on August 7, was based on the experience of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. The agency said the exercise included the use of drones, as well as close interaction between tank and motorized rifle units with units from other branches of the armed forces.

The exercise took place in the Grodno region of Belarus, near the Suwalki Corridor, a 90-kilometer strip of sparsely populated land running along the Lithuanian-Polish border. This strip of land links the three Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – to the rest of NATO, with one end bordering the Russian Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad and the other bordering Belarus, Moscow’s ally.

Western military analysts have long warned that the Suwalki corridor is a potential “hot spot” in the scenario of a confrontation between Russia and NATO. NATO is concerned that in the scenario of Russia controlling Suwalki, Moscow could completely isolate the three Baltic states from the rest of NATO.

Poland and Lithuania have beefed up border security since thousands of Wagner troops arrived in Russia’s ally Belarus under a deal to end an armed rebellion in late June. Leaders of the two NATO countries said they were bracing for further provocations from Moscow and Minsk in the sensitive region, where both countries border Belarus as well as the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

In early August, Poland accused two Belarusian helicopters of briefly violating its airspace at low altitude. Shortly after, the Minsk authorities released data to refute the accusations.

On August 1, TASS news agency quoted Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as saying that he plans to promote the creation of a contract army, in which Wagner fighters stationed in Belarus will become the backbone of this force. Belarus said Wagner trainers and fighters have participated in training missions for its army. Belarus did not disclose how many Wagner fighters are present on its territory.

Some observers said the Belarusian exercise came as several Wagner fighter jets were reported to have arrived in the country. According to Belaruski Hajun, a group that tracks military movements in Belarus, Wagner troops arrive in Belarus in small groups every day. Belarus has not confirmed the reports.

On August 7, Grey Zone, a blog affiliated with Wagner on the Telegram app, reported that about 7,000 Wagner fighters were at a base near Asipovichy, a town 230 km north of the Ukrainian border.

Poland has previously deployed 1,000 troops to the Belarusian border over concerns about Wagner’s presence in its neighbor. Warsaw has also created a new engineering unit to deploy near the Suwalki corridor.

In July, Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski warned that his country, Lithuania and Latvia could jointly decide to close their borders with Belarus if serious incidents involving the Wagner group occurred along their border with Russia's close ally.

“Certainly if there are serious incidents involving the Wagner group on the borders of NATO and EU countries, such as Poland, Lithuania or Latvia, we will definitely act together,” he said, warning that this could lead to “complete isolation” of Belarus.

According to Tin Tuc Newspaper