Israel convinces US to support maintaining Russian military base in Syria

Israeli officials lobbied top U.S. policymakers in late February, arguing that a weakened and decentralized Syria, bolstered by a continued Russian military presence, would help prevent Turkish-backed factions from consolidating power, Reuters reported, citing unnamed sources.

According to Reuters, Israeli officials are increasingly concerned about Ankara's support for the new Syrian government, which will take power after Bashar al-Assad is ousted in late 2024.

Israel has made its position clear in meetings with US officials in Washington and in Israel, as well as through a secret “white paper” circulated among senior policymakers.

Israeli officials have reportedly warned that Türkiye's support for Syria's Islamist-led government could create new security threats near Israel's borders, including the possibility of Syria becoming a base for Hamas and other militant groups.

Turkey, which has played a key role in supporting Syria's new leadership, has repeatedly said it seeks a stable Syria that poses no threat.

Israel, however, sees Ankara's involvement as a significant risk and has expressed concern about Türkiye's growing influence in the region, particularly its links to groups it considers hostile.

Reuters notes that Israeli officials have dismissed suggestions that Türkiye, as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), would be a more reliable security partner than Russia in Syria.

Instead, Israel has advocated for Russia to maintain its military bases in Tartus and Latakia, arguing that a Russian presence is better than uncontrolled Turkish expansion.

The Biden administration reportedly considered lifting sanctions on Syria's new leadership in exchange for Russia withdrawing its bases, but talks did not conclude before President Donald Trump took office in January.

The extent to which the Trump administration is considering Israel's proposals remains unclear, but the White House has shown strong support for Israel's positions on regional security.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly opposed the presence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that has led the fight against Mr. Assad. Netanyahu has also warned against any military buildup in southern Syria, demanding that the area remain demilitarized.

In recent weeks, Israel has increased air strikes on Syrian military sites, citing security concerns.

Türkiye has rejected Israel's accusations, calling them an attempt to justify further Israeli military actions in the region.

A source in Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's ruling party told Reuters that Ankara recently hosted Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as part of efforts to navigate uncertainty over U.S. policy in Syria and counterbalance any diplomatic moves by Israel.

On February 6, in an interview with The Washington Post, Syrian interim Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra said that Moscow's continued military presence could be negotiated if it was considered beneficial to Damascus.

Accordingly, the current Syrian interim government is ready to allow Russia to maintain its air and naval bases on the country's Mediterranean coast, provided that any agreement serves Damascus' interests.

The Syrian defense minister also added that previously the relationship between the current ruling forces in Syria and Russia was confrontational, however, the new government in Damascus is applying a pragmatic approach, suitable to the current situation.